What is the impact of the autumn fertilizer market on the winter storage?

  Since late September, Shandong, Henan, Shanxi, Hebei, and Jiangsu have released orange and red warnings for heavy pollution. The urea, compound fertilizer, and urea downstream plywood plants in the fertilizer industry chain have started to decline significantly. At the end, the amount of fat in autumn is more than 8-9%, dealers mainly distribute goods, and a small number of dealers have sporadic replenishment. The limited production has little effect on the market price of compound fertilizer. The transaction tends to be a single talk, among which sulfur-based fertilizer The transaction center still has a small downside.

Relevant data on September 26 showed that the main compound fertilizer ex-factory price is as follows: 45% s3*15 at 2150-2350 yuan/ton, 45% cl3*15 at 1900-2050 yuan/ton, 45-content wheat fertilizer at 2050-2200 Yuan / ton, 45% s12-18-15 Northeast winter storage part of the station and buyout price of 2150-2250 yuan / ton, the actual transaction tends to the low-end, sulfur-based fertilizer in the low-end price increases. At present, the operating rate of compound fertilizers in China is about 50%, which is significantly lower than that of last week. Due to the impact of environmental protection and production restrictions, compound fertilizer plants in Shandong, Hebei, Henan and Jiangsu have more production and parking enterprises, and demand is weakening, winter storage is still early, and some composites The fertilizer production was reduced or a new round of maintenance was started. Some of the overhauls were heard and resumed after October 3. The price of compound fertilizer raw materials fluctuated steadily this week. Urea, monoammonium phosphate and potassium chloride were used as raw materials. The cost of raw material cost 45CL (3*15) did not change much from last week. The trend of compound fertilizer price, operating rate and cost in 2018-2019 is shown in the figure below.

Recently, urea production has fallen sharply. According to relevant data on September 26, urea producers responded to environmental protection requirements, affecting a total daily output of 20,900 tons. On September 26, urea production fell to 137,600 tons, and the operating rate dropped to 57.96%. Compared with the daily output of 176,600 tons on September 19, it dropped 20,000 tons. In the same period of urea production, the downstream compound fertilizer and plywood factory reduced production significantly, and some of the production cuts were significant. The company’s National Day holiday orders were sufficient, and the orders were suspended. Some urea plants are still reducing the price of orders during the National Day, and the overall price of urea is higher. There was little fluctuation last week. The main ex-factory price of urea in Shandong and surrounding areas is around 1650-1850 yuan/ton, and the mainstream market price in South China is 1890-1960 yuan/ton. At present, the price of sulfur is fluctuating within a narrow range. The monthly sales tender of Qatar, which has received much attention, has once again been flown, and sulfur continues to have high inventory prices. The market gaming atmosphere continues. On September 26, the price of sulfur in Changjiang Port and Fangchenggang is around 630 yuan/ton. . The price of sulfur is stable and fluctuating. The start of compound fertilizer is reduced by environmental protection and demand. The trading atmosphere of monoammonium market continues to decline. However, due to the cost boundary, the ex-factory price of 55% powder-ammonium is stable at 1850-1900 yuan/ton. At present, the potash market is stable. With the continuous arrival of imported goods, it has been heard that the total stock of Hong Kong has exceeded 3.5 million tons. The demand for compound fertilizer has weakened, and the market trading atmosphere is not positive. The demand for potassium sulfate market is not good, and some Mannheim potassium sulfate The company will stop production and repair. The price trend of various raw materials for compound fertilizer in 2018-2019 is shown in the figure below.

  It is understood that the best sowing time for wheat planting in Shandong, Henan and Hebei is between October 1 and October 15, and some grassroots markets still have a small amount of autumn fertilizer demand, leaving no time for the autumn fertilizer market impulse. too much. After October 3, some environmentally-friendly and limited-production compound fertilizer enterprises will resume production, but some enterprises will also enter a new round of overhaul. It is expected that the operating rate of compound fertilizer enterprises will be significantly improved or enter a new round of decline. At present, some enterprises have introduced winter storage policies for the northeast and southwest regions. The interest rate is mainly based on the calculation of the winter storage policy. The price of the compound winter storage policy will also be directly affected by the raw materials. The prices of various raw materials for fertilizers should focus on the latest bidding progress of urea India, the entry of urea plants and compound fertilizers, and the price of salt lake potash in October.