The new season corn is about to go on the market, is the price going up or down?

 At present, the new season corn has begun to appear sporadically. Judging from the weather conditions this year, although some corn producing areas have experienced the effects of drought, typhoon, heavy rain and pests and diseases in the early stage, the overall growth of corn is still good and the production situation is stable. If there is no major natural disaster in the later period, the probability of a bumper harvest this year is greater.

According to industry insiders, as the current market supply is relatively loose and downstream demand is very weak, it is expected that prices will fall to a certain extent after the new corn is listed. However, in the long run, with the gradual recovery of the aquaculture industry, the corn market will see a big positive next year.

Recent corn prices balance in dynamics

Since June, corn prices in North China have entered a volatile market, but the price movements are very limited, basically maintaining a range of volatility. Overall, local corn supply in North China is limited, northeast corn supply is sufficient, manufacturers look at price adjustments, maintain inventory dynamic balance.

Zhuo Chuang Information Analyst Liu Dong: Take the big corn province of Shandong as an example. The prices in these years have basically shown the characteristics of intra-range volatility. This reflects the fact that after market-oriented reforms, the probability of a long-term continuous rise or continuous decline in price changes is already small.

More negative, corn seasonal decline is inevitable

The situation has changed as new corn is about to go on the market. Wang Xiangbo, an analyst at Zhengzhou Grain Market in Henan Province, said that although the consumption of grassroots surplus grain has increased and the spot price has increased, the current overall trade is still relatively deserted, and the new grain is gradually listed, and the price is falling.

Wang Xiangbo: As of August 27, the export price of second-class 14 water corn in the northeastern region was concentrated at 1630-1870 yuan/ton, and the price of Beigang flat cabin was concentrated at 1908-1928 yuan/ton, which was the same as last month; North China The purchase price of grassroots in Huanghuai area is concentrated at 1840-2000 yuan/ton, and some areas are up 10 yuan/ton from last month. The price of Guangdong Shekou Port is 1960-1980 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton from last month.

Judging from the situation in previous years, corn will have a seasonal decline before the large-scale new grain market, most of which will fall between the end of August and the end of September, while the staged bottom price will appear in October. More specifically, last year, the new corn market did not have a significant seasonal decline, and Chen corn and new corn basically achieved seamless integration. However, this year there have been some changes in the market. Liu Dong, an analyst at Zhuo Chuang, said that the current downstream demand is sluggish and the supply is relatively loose.

Liu Dong: First, the stock level of traders is high. After entering the seven or eight months, the grain traders did not enjoy the dividends that the corn supply was in short supply in previous years, and the overall level of goods was greatly reduced. Second, the inventory level of the manufacturers is high. Whether the downstream manufacturers have higher inventory levels of deep processing enterprises or feed enterprises, and the purchasing mentality is relaxed, it is entirely to look at the price adjustment and maintain the relative balance of inventory.

Another factor that cannot be ignored is the continued uninterrupted release of the temporary reserve. As of August 25, 14 corn storages have been carried out this year, and the weekly volume has remained at 4 million tons. The single transaction rate has dropped from the initial 90.66% to the current 11.1%. It is 20.51 million tons. Liu Dong said that although the transaction volume was nearly 46 million tons less than the same period of last year, it also increased the market supply to some extent.

Liu Dong: The demand side is weak, and the price advantage of the auction grain is not obvious, which makes the auction transaction rate continue to fall, and the enthusiasm of the company continues to decline. Based on the above factors, the seasonal decline in the new season corn this year is inevitable. In September, with the spring corn market, the price of corn may fall continuously.

In terms of new season corn, the southern corn has been listed on the market. The spring maize in the northeastern region has been in the silky to milky stage. The summer maize in North China is generally in the silking stage, and partially enters the milk ripening stage. After more than one month, the yellow corn in the north China Spring corn in the northeastern production area will also be listed one after another.

Wang Xiangbo, an analyst at Zhengzhou Grain Wholesale Market in Henan Province, said that the quality of new grain should still pay attention to the weather conditions in the later period, especially the weather conditions during the grain filling period. There are many uncertain factors. From the current situation, the corn yield is expected to be strong this year.

Wang Xiangbo pointed out that the current sluggish demand is still the main contradiction affecting the trend of corn. Although the state has introduced a number of supporting policies such as finance, finance and land, focusing on supporting the breeding of pig farms and scale farms and expanding production capacity, the current situation is pig breeding. Faced with the reality of survival rate and lack of pigs, high prices, recovery is also more difficult, so the recovery of corn demand for pig feed in the second half of the year is still unsatisfactory, but there may be more opportunities in the coming year.

Wang Xiangbo: If the success rate of pig rearing is gradually increased in 2020, corn feed may be warmed up. At that time, corn prices are expected to rebound. Therefore, considering the time cost, it is recommended that growers try to sell food after the new grain is listed, if the storage conditions are better. You can choose to store the dry food for next spring and summer.