Fertilizer market collective "cold": the trouble of urea?

  In August, the heat of the fertilizer market was not infected by the hot weather all over the country, but it became more and more deserted. After the end of the first round of pre-receiving activities in the autumn fertilizer market, the compound fertilizer companies implemented the regular interest-bearing and guarantee policies, but the downstream did not buy it, and the market was once in a stalemate. Similar to this, the recent market for water-soluble fertilizers has cooled slightly from the previous period, and the local trading atmosphere has weakened.

The fertilizer market collectively "cold", people point the finger at urea. Indeed, with the gradual fermentation of the impact of the printing mark, the domestic urea market is limited, and the price drops and then falls. In the short term, the demand for industry and agriculture is still weak. Therefore, for the overall market, urea is still bearish. However, the cooling of the water-soluble fertilizer market is not only due to changes in raw materials, but also has certain unfavorable factors at the supply and demand end.

Low season demand

In recent years, while the planting structure adjustment and “water and fertilizer integration” have been carried out simultaneously, the demand for water-soluble fertilizers has caught up, and even the partial demand in some areas has surpassed that of traditional fertilizers. The past seasons are not so obvious.

Generally speaking, the southeast coast and the northwest inland areas are areas where water soluble fertilizer is widely demanded. Recently, most of the northwestern regions such as Xinjiang and Gansu have ended in the traditional peak season, and the demand for water-soluble fertilizers has been greatly reduced. In the southeast coastal areas in summer, the weather is rainy, and agricultural activities often stagnate, which has affected the progress of downstream fertilizer preparation to some extent. Therefore, combined with the different conditions in the above regions, water-soluble fertilizers ushered in the off-season demand.

Limited supply

It is reported that as of the end of last month, the first batch of 8 central ecological environmental protection inspectors in the second round, the six groups responsible for provincial (city) inspectors have entered the sinking inspector stage; the two groups responsible for central enterprise inspectors have entered the key inspectors. stage.

The operation will take three years to complete the routine inspector, and then use a year to complete the "review", a national environmental storm that is sweeping the country, continues. At present, the environmental protection situation in some concentrated fertilizer production enterprises is unprecedentedly severe. Many small and medium-sized enterprises are facing the danger of staged parking. Therefore, the supply of water-soluble fertilizers may be “disconnected”. Even if the demand is off-season, it will affect the enthusiasm of downstream goods.

Market chaos

When it comes to market chaos, the fertilizer market has been countless in recent years. It is more common to use fake and chaotic, and even the phenomenon of shoddy and shoddy. Such incidents not only disrupt the normal market order, but also weaken the enthusiasm of downstream involvement in fertilizer purchases and sales. The water-soluble fertilizer market is chaotic or more than traditional fertilizers. The first reason is that the price of water-soluble products is uneven, and the price gap between the same types of products is wide. The second reason is that the emergence of water-soluble fertilizers has led to a large number of production enterprises and brand confusion. Therefore, the market has become more chaotic. The release of downstream demand has also been suppressed to some extent.

In summary, the fall in urea prices will definitely affect the atmosphere of the entire fertilizer market, coupled with the weakening of downstream demand, water-soluble fertilizers ushered in the off-season market, the short-term enterprises will cut production, smooth shipments, the price range will be appropriately relaxed.